El Dorado, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

435
FXUS63 KICT 252045
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
345 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain and storms, some severe, are expected the rest  of
the afternoon into the evening hours.

- Heavy rain and flooding will continue to be a threat through the
evening hours.

- Dangerous heat returns Sunday and continues through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Current satellite and radar indicate a MCV situated across
northeastern Kansas. This has lead to persistent cloud cover and
shower activity across central Kansas. Instability is limited across
our central Kansas counties this afternoon while south-central and
southeastern Kansas are seeing CAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg
and around 30 kts of effective shear. These parameters combined with
the lingering boundary will lead to severe storm chances this
afternoon into the early evening hours. PWAT values of around 2
inches are once again present over eastern Kansas so the heavy rain
threat is expected to continue with our rain and storm activity
today. Any additional heavy rainfall across already saturated ground
will exacerbate the flooding concerns. Therefore, the Flood Watch
has been extended until 06Z.

By Saturday, the MCV will lift off to the northeast. The majority of
the rain and convection will have shifted off to the east. An
isolated diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out
for far southeastern Kansas on Saturday afternoon, but coverage
would be extremely low. Temperatures will begin to rebound on
Saturday with highs reaching into the lower to middle 90s, heat
index values will reach between 100-105 degrees.

For Sunday into early next week, the midlevel ridge will shift back
westward and will be centered directly over the Central Plains. This
means the return of heat and dry weather for the end of the weekend
and the beginning of next week. Highs look to reach into the middle
to upper 90s areawide, with central Kansas approaching the lower
100s for Sun-Tue. Dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to lower
70s leading to higher humidity values which will exacerbate the heat
concerns with elevated Heat Index values.

Towards the end of the forecast period, global models are indicating
another shortwave trough digging into the Northern Plains on
Wednesday. This will send another weak frontal boundary across
Kansas for Thursday bringing with it the potential for cooler
temperatures and additional rain chances for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

MVFR conditions continue to impact the area and will continue
throughout the afternoon. Showers and storms are starting to
develop in central Kansas which should begin to impact
KRSL/KGBD/KSLN over the next few hours. Coverage will most
likely increase southward and eventually impact KHUT/KICT by
around 21Z. Conditions should begin to improve by 04Z as the
entire convective system moves eastward.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ048>053-067>070-082-
083.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...SGS