El Dorado, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

651
FXUS63 KICT 101949
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
149 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures averaging a bit above seasonal climo this week
  though maintaining a Fall-feel.

- Slight/modest rain chances Tuesday night/early Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Light westerly component flow will prevail thru tonight across
central and southeast Kansas. A weak downslope flow is
generally not conducive to fog formation, however local fog
procedures (especially from the RAP) suggests a shallow
radiational fog is possible toward dawn over the antecedent damp
ground, mainly along/east of I-135. Otherwise, temperatures
will warm a bit more on Monday as a surface trof/weak cold front
settles southward across central Kansas by the afternoon with
highs approaching 70F in parts of southern Kansas. A mild and
increasing southerly low level flow will develop on Tuesday
ahead of the next upper trof approaching from the intermountain
West and northern Rockies. Despite rather modest moisture
return, weak elevated instability develops ahead of the upper
trof and associated surface front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
So will maintain slight to modest PoPs across the area. The
modified nature of the airmass behind the Pacific front will
only knock back highs closer to 60F on Wednesday which is near
seasonal climo for mid-November. The rather progressive westerly
flow regime aloft will see ridging aloft over the area again by
Thursday into Friday with temperatures warming thru the 60s
again for the end of the week. The forecast becomes a bit more
problematic by next weekend as there is more spread in the
medium range in handling an upper trof moving into the far
western conus. Just how far south the initial trof may dig or
not, depends on the strength/timing of upstream shortwaves.
That said, Kansas looks to be situated in southwesterly flow
aloft with an eventual surface cold front sagging southward
across the area. So expect some change in weekend forecast over
the next few runs with regard to temperatures and precipitation
chances.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period, with winds becoming light and variable after sunset.
There remains a slight chance for fog after 06Z in south central and
southeast KS. Confidence in impacts remains low at this time, so
prevailing groups were kept at 6SM at ICT, HUT, and CNU. Refer
to upcoming forecasts as more information becomes available.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...JWK